Weather, December, 2023

Rapid intensification of hurricanes, How good are long-range forecasts?

Weather, December 2023 Rapid intensification of hurricanes By Ken McKinley In the previous newsletter I discussed the impact of upper level wind shear on hurricanes and how its presence or absence impacts changes in intensity of these systems. Thanks to significant improvements in the ability to observe these systems as well as the environments around them, mostly due to more sophisticated weather satellites and better mathematical modeling, there have been dramatic improvements in forecast accuracy over the past couple of decades. However, there is one aspect of tropical cyclone forecasting which has lagged behind in terms of improvement, and this is the phenomena of rapid intensification (RI). RI is defined as an increase in the maximum wind speed of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots within a time period of 24 hours or less. > READ MORE Related articles from Ocean Navigator archives How good are long-range forecasts? By Ken McKinley Ocean-going mariners have many sources for weather forecast information these days, and thanks to the internet and satellite communication technologies, these resources are readily available both ashore and at sea. Improvements in the science of weather forecasting have allowed longer and longer-range forecasts to be produced in recent years to the point that 96- and 120-hour (four- and five-day) forecasts are now routinely available, and even longer range forecast information can be accessed. But it is worth asking the question: How reliable are these forecasts? > READ MORE Ocean Navigator November/December 2023  Click the cover to view the articles in the November/December issue of Ocean Navigator.  Seeing the whole weather picture By Ken McKinley The preceding article provides detailed information about many apps for smartphones, tablets and laptops to help ocean voyagers with passage planning. These apps bring the output of mathematical models of the atmosphere to mariners in a useful, widely used format. Since mathematical models are the core of these apps, it is worth discussing the general theory behind them.  > READ MORE Copyright © 2023 Maritime Publishing, All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you opted in at our website. Our mailing address is: Maritime Publishing 3980 Sherman St Ste 100 San Diego, CA 92110-4314 Add us to your address book Want to change how you receive these emails? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list.